Flying clear at the top of the Premier League, Liverpool seem to have everything positive going their way heading into the new year.
By Karl Matchett
One last challenge for 2024 remains, though; one last test of Arne Slot’s side – and in West Ham United that’s a much tougher game than it might have seemed even a month ago.
Skewed history
Once in the Premier League past, this might have been seen as a fairly close-call fixture. From 1994 to 2000, from 13 top-flight meetings the Reds won four, five were draws and the Hammers claimed the other four. Of late, that isn’t quite the same: of the last 17 in all competitions, Liverpool have won 14. Jürgen Klopp definitely had the edge over David Moyes – as well as Slaven Bilić and Manuel Pellegrini – and earlier this term, Arne Slot continued the recent tradition with a 5-1 League Cup win over Julen Lopetegui. It was looking bleak for the Spaniard for a period after that, but much has changed.
West Ham’s uptick
The aforementioned cup defeat came in a run of one win in seven and Lopetegui was linked with a swift departure more than once. But a corner appears to have been turned: it’s just two defeats in eight now and West Ham are undefeated in four. Eight points in that run has lifted them to 13th, above Manchester United and only six points off Newcastle in fifth – the margins remain fine, but they’re in the upper-mid-table group for sure.
That improvement will give Slot pause for thought and he’ll know this is a different team to the one Liverpool trounced in September. Still, his own team haven’t lost since that same month and the league leaders have put together back-to-back wins around Christmas after successive draws beforehand. In all competitions it’s 11 wins in the last 13 and they hold a six-point advantage at the top.
Team news
Goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański is out due to concussion protocols and Tomáš Souček is suspended. Michail Antonio is out for the foreseeable future and Max Kilman is a doubt for West Ham. For Liverpool, Dominik Szoboszlai is suspended and Ibrahima Konaté remains injured. Conor Bradley is the only other expected absentee for the Reds.
Key player
Cody Gakpo’s form has been immense on the other flank and he’d be our choice – but there’s an amount of rotation to consider and Luis Díaz didn’t play against Leicester so that might be one swap. It’s Curtis Jones therefore who could dictate Liverpool’s fortunes here; he scored on Boxing Day and will be the No. 10 again with Szoboszlai suspended. On a per 90 basis Jones ranks 91st percentile for xGOT, 97th for passes, 98th for dribble success and 100th – the best of all in his role – for pass accuracy. He’s the team’s press monster, instigates play from deep and has great movement around the box.
Prediction
Could be a bit of a slog, given the Hammers’ recent upturn and the rapid turnaround between winter fixtures, but an away win all the same: West Ham 1-2 Liverpool.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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