Three points separate La Liga’s top three as we end the calendar year, so we are sure to get an exciting title race in the second half of the season. Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona all have their issues, making them quite closely matched so far.
By Neel Shelat
Atlético Madrid’s smash-and-grab win over Barcelona this weekend saw them jump to the top of La Liga’s standings for the first time this season, while neighbours Real Madrid followed them into second place with a win over Sevilla. With these results, the last round of fixtures in 2024 has set us up very nicely for a thrilling title race between the usual suspects.
Atlético Madrid: Defence still Simeone’s key to success
Atlético Madrid’s summer transfer business was quite eye-catching. They spent big on a couple of star attackers, underscoring a shift in approach away from the typically dogged and defensive Diego Simeone side. The challenge for the Argentine tactician then became to find the right formula to get the best out of a top-heavy side.
Initially, Atléti faced various problems. Simeone started the season with a back three formation, though he was reluctant to put Antoine Griezmann, Julián Alvarez and Alexander Sørloth all in the same starting line-up. Perhaps due to the new additions, the attack didn’t quite click immediately, but the breaking point probably came at the other end.
Los Colchoneros seemed to forsake their defensive department amidst their heavy attacking spending, especially leaving it thin in terms of quality. They no longer had absolute rocks at the back, so a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Benfica in the Champions League caused Simeone to switch his approach. After a bit of experimenting, he reverted to a good old-fashioned 4-4-2 and has stuck to it since.
By choosing to drop into a solid low block out of possession, Atléti have managed to shore up their defence. They have conceded the fewest goals and lowest xG tally in La Liga so far and certainly look like the best defensive side in the division.
As for the attack, Simeone has found an interesting formula whereby Griezmann and Alvarez start most matches in the front two, while Sørloth makes an impact off the bench. The Norwegian striker has not started a league game in over two months but has scored five of his eight goals in that period, including three game-winners. In fact, Atlético’s substitutes have registered 22 goal involvements in the league between them this season – a figure more than 11 teams’ total goal tallies!
After winning just four of nine LaLiga and Champions League matches in which they started with a back three, Atlético are on a 12-match winning streak right now. Clearly, Simeone has found the right formula for this side.
Real Madrid: Los Blancos finally firing?
Defending champions Real Madrid might have been expected to improve even further following the arrival of Kylian Mbappé, but that has not proven to be the case. They long struggled to get their rejigged attack to click, while existing defensive issues were exacerbated in the tighter matches.
Finding the right role for Mbappé has been one of their biggest challenges as the French forward is not an out-and-out striker but cannot be shifted too far out to the left to ensure Vinícius Júnior remains unhindered. With both of their biggest superstars favouring the left side, Los Blancos have also become a little too unidimensional at times.
Even so, there have been some promising signs in recent games. Although injuries have prevented Mbappé and Vinícius from starting too many matches together, they showed some nice link-play against an admittedly weaker Pachuca side in the FIFA Intercontinental Cup. The French superstar’s subsequent performance against Sevilla was quite encouraging too, with Ancelotti himself stating that “His adaptation period is over.”
Jude Bellingham also seems to have sufficiently readjusted into a more connecting midfield role after being the team’s chief goal threat last term, while Rodrygo has chipped in with some handy contributions from the right. Even if they are far from their very best, this Real Madrid squad simply has the irresistible individual quality to seriously compete in this title race. If they further improve in 2025, they could even run away with it.
Barcelona: Wheels falling off for Flick’s side?
Barcelona were fastest out of the blocks at the start of the season as Hansi Flick’s side won 11 of their first 12 league games, racing to a nine-point lead. Even at the time, though, analysts warned that they would struggle to sustain such a level of performance throughout the season, and their premonitions have come true perhaps even earlier than expected.
Barça have picked up just five points from their last seven league matches, losing to Real Sociedad, Las Palmas, Leganés and Atlético Madrid in that period. While some of those results were unfortunate, many of Barcelona’s issues were exposed in those games.
Most evidently, their extreme defensive approach is starting to get punished as opponents are now regularly breaching their insanely high defensive line. Barcelona have conceded the eighth-most goals in LaLiga, but their underlying numbers are even worse.
Injury issues have not helped their cause, though they only have themselves to blame for their lack of squad depth. That can also be cited as an issue in their attack, as they have inadequate backup for the ageing Robert Lewandowski and 17-year-old Lamine Yamal. The Catalan giants’ financial situation is not going to get any better anytime soon, so they are reportedly set to face squad registration issues once again in the January window.
The one positive for Flick’s side is that they still have the best underlying numbers in the league thanks to a free-flowing first-choice attack, Unless they improve in other respects, though, they will surely find it difficult to win the league with just that.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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