This isn’t a blip. Manchester City are in freefall.
By Sam McGuire
The reigning Premier League champions have lost eight of their last 11 across all competitions and have recorded just one win during this period. Pep Guardiola’s side gave up a 3-0 lead at home against Feyenoord in the Champions League to draw 3-3. They also lost 2-1 to neighbours Manchester United at the Etihad despite heading into the final five minutes of the match with a 1-0 advantage.
City are nine points behind leaders Liverpool despite having played a game more. They are just three points clear of ninth-placed Brighton following a run of five defeats in their last seven in the English top-flight.
Everything is going wrong for Guardiola and his players.
Erling Haaland started the season in ridiculous form, scoring 10 goals in his first five appearances as City claimed 13 points from 15 on offer.
Since then, however, the two-time Golden Boot winner has scored just three goals across his last 11 outings for the champions. He has just four goal involvements in total during this period. He’s blanking when City need him most.
Whereas last season, City had reinforcements to back up their No. 9, this isn’t the case this time around. Julián Alvarez, Haaland’s understudy and someone who finished with 11 goals last term, was sold to Atlético Madrid in the summer. For whatever reason, no replacement was signed. Phil Foden finished the 2023/24 campaign with 19 Premier League goals. He’s yet to find the back of the net this season, despite making 11 appearances. Rodri chipped in with eight goals as Guardiola guided his side to a fourth successive title but an ACL injury has ruled him out of the season.
Foden remains with the club but his form, or lack of, means City are down 38 goals in their haul from last season. The increased reliance on Haaland, combined with injuries to Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne and the decline of Ederson and Kyle Walker has meant it has been the perfect storm for the opposition.
City aren’t as much of a threat and they aren’t anywhere near as defensively resilient.
Their second highest scorer in the league this season is Joško Gvardiol on four. Mateo Kovačić (three) is next up on the list.
They rank sixth for goals scored with 1.8. For context here, Chelsea and Spurs lead the way with 2.3. They have conceded, on average, 1.4 goals per game, a total that 15th-placed Crystal Palace (1.3) can better. Arsenal and Liverpool have the best defensive record this season having allowed just 0.9 goals per 90.
The Citizens have kept just three clean sheets in the Premier League and have conceded a minimum of two goals on eight occasions.
These numbers are backed up when looking at the underlying metrics. City are fifth for Expected Goals, eighth for big chances and 11 teams have a lower Expected Goals Conceded haul.
By comparison, last season, City had the best attack (averaging 2.5 goals per 90) and the second best defensive numbers, allowing just 0.9 goals per 90. Arsenal were the only team to claim more clean sheets while Liverpool could only better Man City’s Expected Goal numbers. Guardiola’s side ranked third for big chances and claimed second spot behind the Gunners for xG conceded.
There’s no quick fix for the situation City find themselves in right now.
To shore up their defence, they need to freshen up their midfield. But it takes time for midfielders to acclimatise to the way Guardiola wants his team to play. They need reinforcements in attack but finding someone who will be happy to sit behind Haaland for large spells isn’t going to be easy. They also need experience on the flanks because Jérémy Doku and Savinho, as good as they are, aren’t able to hit the numbers posted by Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez just yet. They’re learning on the job when City need a reliable supply line to their No. 9. That is why, despite averaging a similar number of efforts per 90, Haaland’s xG numbers have dropped by 0.21 per 90.
Guardiola let this group age. Maybe he thought he could eke out another season from the core group but the injury to Rodri really had an impact on everything. It exposed their weaknesses and masked their strengths. This rebuild was on the horizon for the champions. It needs to start in January though if they’re to salvage this season. This isn’t just a poor run of form. This is the beginning of the end for this group.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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