Mid-table inconsistency against title favourites – only one way this goes, right? Rayo Vallecano hosting Real Madrid, 12th against potential table-toppers given the game in hand, isn’t generally one which stands out as a surprise result or banana skin for Carlo Ancelotti’s side – but even so maybe there’s pause for thought.
By Karl Matchett
Madrid have won just one of the last four LaLiga meetings between these teams, didn’t beat Rayo at all last term, and still have a host of big-name players out injured.
Stranger things have happened, but even so the odds will be stacked in Madrid’s favour, not the least of which is the scoring form of Jude Bellingham. The Englishman, pushed higher upfield of late once more, has netted in each of his last four games, while Kylian Mbappé has also scored in three of those. Rayo goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has the highest save percentage of all stoppers in LaLiga, with 76.6%; there’s a good chance they’ll need him in that kind of form on Saturday night.
Form guide
Rayo have been wildly unpredictable this term, winning five but losing six, conceding six in three straight defeats before keeping a clean sheet to win 1-0 against Valencia last time out. Finishing 12th would of course be a big positive for them after ending 17th last term, though as that came at the end of one win in six they’ll hope for more consistency – key word again – this time around.
Real Madrid won the title at a canter last year but are chasing Barcelona this term. However, four wins in the last five mean they’re just two points off top spot with a game in hand now, so maintaining pressure on Hansi Flick’s side is of paramount importance. Five wins in the last seven across all competitions have only seen them beaten by Liverpool in Europe and Athletic Club domestically, but they’ve been remarkably regular in beating middle of the road sides.
Team news
Raúl de Tomás and Pelayo Feráandez are the only absent faces for Rayo, but Real continue to be without David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy in a full potential defence. Eduardo Camavinga is also sidelined and Mbappé went off early in the midweek win at Atalanta, so will miss out here as a result.
Key player
It’s Bellingham for Real Madrid and not for the first time. The attacking midfielder has been able to regularly push on again over the past few matches, netting both from open play and the penalty spot. He has five league goals from an xG of 3.2, is in the 97th percentile for successful passes this season, 92nd for touches per 90 and 91st for duels won in his position. He’s an all-round force on and off the ball and now the goals are flowing again too.
Prediction
Real Madrid to get the win they need, but not without a struggle and this looks a game in which both teams get on the scoresheet in. Rayo 1 Real 2.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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