We’re entering that point of the Premier League campaign. Every single match now feels pivotal in the grand scheme of things. While there’s still a lot of football to be played, dropped points here can feel so damaging. So, with this in mind, what is there to look forward to this weekend?
By Sam McGuire
An upset for the league leaders?
Liverpool have dropped points in just three of their 14 Premier League matches this term. The Reds are four points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand over their rivals following the postponement of the Merseyside derby.
Arne Slot’s side have the second best home record in the English top flight having taken 18 points from a possible 21. They have scored 13 goals at Anfield and conceded on just three occasions.
They host Fulham on Saturday afternoon.
The Cottagers have been one of the surprise packages in the Premier League this term. Marco Silva’s men are 10th in the Premier League, just two points behind fifth-placed Nottingham Forest and four behind fourth-placed Manchester City.
Fulham have won just one of their previous 14 matches against Liverpool across all competitions but do come into this match in good form. Their points haul of 23 is matched by their Expected Points total, pointing to the fact performances have matched results.
They have also done well against big sides this term. They’ve drawn games against Spurs and Arsenal and they picked up three points against an impressive Brighton side. The Cottagers lost 3-2 to reigning champions Manchester City but posted an Expected Goals total of 2.3 in that defeat. They deserved to win.
Silva possesses players who can cause teams trouble and Raúl Jiménez looks back to his best. And if Liverpool aren’t at their best, they weren’t in mid-week against Girona in the Champions League, an upset could be on the cards.
Overperformers vs Underperformers
Ahead of the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, a lot of people tipped Aston Villa for another top four push after completing some good business during the summer transfer window. A lot of people, myself included, also thought Nottingham Forest would be involved in a relegation battle.
Yet here we are in December with Forest sat above Villa in the table. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are in fifth while Unai Emery has his team sitting in sixth. They’re level on points but the narratives around both teams could not be any more different.
Forest are defying the odds. Villa are struggling to live up to expectations.
The Villans make the trip to the City Ground this weekend looking to make it three wins on the bounce in the Premier League after a difficult period. Across their last five games in the English top flight, they have picked up just seven points. Forest have tailed off a little too, claiming just six points during the same period. However, they did beat Manchester United at Old Trafford last time out and they have upped their game against the more traditional top sides, beating Liverpool and drawing with Chelsea.
It is worth noting that Forest’s home form hasn’t been great – they rank 12th with 11 points from 21 on offer – while Villa are decent enough on their travels, winning three from seven matches.
For both teams it is a big game in the grand scheme of things.
The Manchester derby
Both teams are in dire need of a reaction and a performance.
Few would’ve expected to be saying this about Manchester City in December but the reigning champions need a big showing against their neighbours. There’s more at stake than just three points and local pride.
City have won one of their last 10 across all competitions and fell to defeat again in midweek as Juventus claimed a 2-0 win in the Champions League. By the time kick off comes around, the reigning champions could be five points behind Arsenal and 11 points off of leaders Liverpool.
The champions are in freefall. A win here in the Manchester derby could be the catapult needed to get things going again. A loss could end their title hopes before the turn of the New Year. City have the quality but they’re lacking in confidence.
United need something. They need anything to really kickstart the Rúben Amorim era.
The 4-0 win over Everton was a false dawn. They lost 3-2 to Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford in their last game in the league and have suffered back-to-back losses in the Premier League under the Portuguese tactician. If results don’t go their way this weekend, they finish in 14th place.
The result here could be seismic in Manchester and across the Premier League.
Battle of the under fire bosses
Southampton welcome Spurs to St Mary’s Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams are in desperate need of three points.
The Saints are bottom of the Premier League and have just one win to their name in the English top-flight this term. They have conceded 31 goals and found the back of the net on just 11 occasions. Russell Martin’s job as manager is under threat with the one-time Swansea boss reluctant to switch things up in a bid to extend Southampton’s stint in the top tier.
His team are regularly playing into trouble and making life difficult for themselves.
The same can be said for Spurs under Ange Postecoglou.
Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher believes the Aussie tactician is too stubborn.
“I wake up every morning hoping the sun is shining, so I can put some shorts and a T-shirt on but if it’s raining, you put your coat on.”
Spurs held a 2-0 lead over Chelsea last time out but imploded to lose 4-3. The result left them 11th in the Premier League and they lost Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero to injuries. The pressure is mounting on the former Celtic boss and defeat here could spell the end for him.
Likewise, though, a heavy loss for Southampton could spell the end for Martin.
The stakes are high.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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