Analysis: How Botafogo have put together their best-ever season

Botafogo lifted their first Copa Libertadores trophy this weekend with a dramatic 3-1 win over Atlético Mineiro despite a second-minute red card. They are also on the verge of winning their first league title since the 1990s, which means they could well seal their first-ever double in the next week.


By Neel Shelat


Botafogo have had quite a topsy-turvy few years. They were relegated as recently as 2020 when they finished well adrift at the very bottom of the Brazilian Série A. They then bounced straight back up by winning the second tier, and a takeover led by American investor John Textor saw them kick on in the top flight.

Botafogo got off to an absolute flyer in 2023, amassing a 13-point lead at the halfway stage of the season. They looked well on their way to winning their first league title since 1995, but head coach Luís Castro left for Al Nassr midway through the season. Their campaign completely unravelled thereafter as three different head coaches failed to sustain the title charge. With just two wins in their last 17 league fixtures, Botafogo not only threw away top spot but dropped all the way down to fifth – outside the direct Libertadores qualification places.

After a couple of more coaching changes, Fogo finally got back on track at the start of the league season in 2024. They kept up with the frontrunners for the first part of the year and assumed the lead around the midway point. Defending champions Palmeiras were in close pursuit throughout, though, and it looked like Botafogo were collapsing again as they drew three straight matches in November and dropped to second. A critical win in a crunch fixture against Palmeiras arrested their slide and put them back on top, leaving them with just four points to get from their last two fixtures.

Meanwhile in the Copa Libertadores, the pinnacle of club football in South America, Botafogo were not exactly cruising along from start to finish. They just about edged past Red Bull Bragantino to qualify and then lost their first two group matches. They picked up 10 points from the other four matches to qualify for the knockouts, then narrowly defeated Palmeiras (there’s omens here) and São Paulo before thrashing Uruguayan champions Peñarol to reach their first Libertadores final. That game, of course, was exceptionally singular as Botafogo went down to ten men just seconds after kick-off but still created the better chances and secured a deserved win.

With such unprecedented success on multiple fronts, Artur Jorge’s side certainly merit closer inspection.

Effective direct attacking

While most title contenders in the world’s strongest leagues currently tend to use quite a patient possession-based style of play, there is a trend of increased directness emerging in many places. The Brazilian league, for its part, was never heavily influenced by the extremely control-oriented approaches that spread around Europe in recent times, so Botafogo’s direct attacking style is not much of a surprise in the local context.

Jorge’s side do keep a healthy amount of possession as their average of 54.6% in the league this season places them sixth on that metric, but much of it is spent circulating the ball around the back looking for an opening. Lining up in some variation of a 4-2-2-2 to 4-2-3-1 formation, they do not gradually progress through the thirds but instead like to look for their front four in transitional situations. That is why they play so many long balls.

Fogo are also the top crossers in the Brasileirão with an average of 5.8 accurate deliveries per 90, using them both in transition and to try and cause chaos against low blocks. That is a major avenue for Botafogo’s consistent quality chance creation, which is the key to their attacking success. 

Botafogo have the third-highest xG tally in the league and have scored the joint second-most goals, largely thanks to the fact that they have created more big chances than anyone else. Their ability to catch defences off guard with a direct approach and willingness to put the ball in the danger areas in the box can be attributed as the main reasons behind that.

Interestingly, no individual stands out in terms of attacking output. While former Porto striker Tiquinho Soares’ 17-goal season powered Botafogo’s title challenge last term, their top scorer this season only has seven. They do have an exciting cohort of attackers including former Real Betis winger Luiz Henrique, Brazil national team striker Igor Jesus, Venezuelan international Jefferson Savarino and former MLS star Thiago Almada, but the fact that a whopping 28 players have chipped in with either a goal or an assist is why Botafogo have managed to keep scoring week in week out.

Deep defending

Botafogo’s defending also feeds into their attacking approach as they tend to drop back out of possession, creating counterattacking opportunities after turnovers. Of course, they do not sink straight into a low block, but their initial setup is very much geared around restricting their opponents from accessing the midfield. They hardly look to press as a result, so their defensive line gradually drops back to prevent being breached in behind.

Dropping into a 4-4-2 block lower down the pitch, Botafogo have been able to restrict their opponents quite effectively through the sheer number of players they have behind the ball. They have conceded the second-fewest shots on target and third-lowest xG, but most importantly the fewest goals in the league.

Evidently, there is some discrepancy between Botafogo’s underlying numbers and the actual number of goals they have conceded. That can largely be chalked up to the excellent shot-stopping of 23-year-old goalkeeper John Victor, who has done very well when called upon for the most part.

Thus, with a fairly simplistic approach, Botafogo put together all the ingredients for their best-ever season. They just need to get over the line in the last two games, but they will hardly have any time to rest thereafter as they will have to jet straight off to Qatar for the FIFA Intercontinental Cup next week.


(Cover image from IMAGO)


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