Liverpool have the opportunity to extend their advantage over Manchester City to 11 points on Sunday as they welcome the reigning Premier League champions to Anfield.
By Sam McGuire
A win would cap off an incredible week for the Reds having already seen off Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday evening.
The season so far
Arne Slot’s side have been almost faultless this term.
The former Feyenoord boss has guided the 2019/20 Premier League champions to 10 wins and a draw in his opening 12 matches in the league while the Reds have a 100% record in cup competitions.
Only Tottenham Hotspur (2.3) are averaging more goals per game than Liverpool (two) in the English top-flight and the Reds have the third-highest Expected Goals total (23.6), so their attacking numbers are fairly sustainable. Defensively, they’re robust. The Merseyside club have kept the most clean sheets (six), have the lowest goals against per game figure (0.7) and have the lowest Expected Goals Against total (10.7).
In a nutshell, their performances are worthy of their position in the Premier League table.
The Reds are bossing it in Europe too having won all five of their Champions League ties this term.
By comparison, it has been a bit of a struggle for Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola’s men started the season well and put together a 13-match unbeaten run. This included a four-match and five-match winning streak. Erling Haaland was scoring goals for fun too, netting back-to-back hat-tricks in the Premier League as he raced clear in the hunt for a third successive Golden Boot.
But then the goals dried up. As did the wins.
Their last victory arrived in October and they head to Anfield winless in six. Their underlying numbers in the Premier League have tailed off too.
City have the ninth best defensive record with an Expected Goals Against total of 15.9. They’re allowing 1.4 goals against per 90 and have kept just two clean sheets. In attack, they’re still dangerous. Their Expected Goals total of 24.4 is the highest in the Premier League. However, they’re scoring just 1.8 goals per 90. Chances aren’t being converted. Couple that with a struggling defence and it is clear why their title bid has been abruptly halted. For now, at least.
Previous encounters
Liverpool’s record against Manchester City hasn’t been that great over recent years. The Reds have won just three of the previous 12 encounters. However, they have only lost on four occasions. A lot of these matches end in a stalemate.
It is worth noting though that Guardiola’s side have hit their opponents for four goals on three occasions. When they do pick up a win over the Merseyside club, it tends to be an emphatic one.
The Reds have won just one of their last four matches against City at Anfield, so home comforts have counted for very little recently in this particular clash.
Current form
City ended their five match losing streak on Tuesday but it wasn’t a cause of celebration. Guardiola’s side took a 3-0 lead against Feyenoord in the Champions League but had to settle for a point as the Eredivisie side scored three goals in the final 16 minutes to stun the Etihad.
The 3-3 draw now means Man City have conceded 17 goals across their last six matches. They have conceded a minimum of two goals in every single match. Feyenoord hit them for three while both Spurs and Sporting scored four times in big wins over the Citizens.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are flying.
Since their shock 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September, the Reds have won 14 of their 15 matches. They are currently on a six match winning streak and have beaten the champions of Spain and Germany during this run. Slot’s side are relentless, ruthless and resilient right now.
The Injury situation
Liverpool are still without some key players despite the returns of Harvey Elliott and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Both were on the bench for the win over Real Madrid. However, Ibrahima Konaté hobbled off at full-time against the LaLiga champions while Conor Bradley was replaced with what looked like a hamstring issue. Those two could join Alisson Becker, Diogo Jota, Kostas Tsmikas and Federico Chiesa on the sidelines for this match.
City are having a bit of an injury crisis right now as well.
Jérémy Doku, Oscar Bobb, Mateo Kovačić and Ballon d’Or winner Rodri are all ruled out. Guardiola’s options in attack and midfield are both severely limited right now but this was always a possibility when the champions decided to sell Julian Alvárez in the summer without bringing in a replacement.
Prediction
This is usually a tepid affair with both teams showing the other a lot of respect.
Slot might see it as an opportunity though. City are having a crisis of confidence right now and Liverpool could take full advantage of this. With Anfield behind them, a statement win could be on the cards. They did it against Madrid. They can do it against the Citizens this week.
We’re going with a Liverpool win.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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