One win, almost a third of the season gone. It doesn’t make good reading for Wolverhampton Wanderers fans so far, but that doesn’t mean negativity and pessimism should be spiralling around the club – there are plenty of reasons to think they are on the cusp of kick-starting their season and have the quality and firepower to do so.
Having the players who are talented enough to win matches is one thing, of course, while actually getting the job done consistently is another. Wolves have had injuries to contend with this term and a shocking fixture list at the beginning of the campaign, but other teams have and will have to deal with the same thing – Gary O’Neil knows results must change quickly.
The good thing is that they can do now. Having already faced Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Man City by mid-October, the last three games have seen them take five points, including that long-overdue win against Southampton before the international break. And next up? Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich, Leicester. They won’t necessarily win them all, but all are winnable games. In the xG table Wolves are above two of them and just below another two; as a team they rank 14th in the Premier League for shots on target per game, 16th for possession, 14th for possession won in the final third. They might want a league placing ultimately higher than those, but the point is if they are able to produce those kinds of numbers against the league’s leading lights, they should be able to perform even better, on average, in their next half a dozen encounters.
A significant part of the reason why they can be confident of improvement is the form of two attackers: Matheus Cunha of course, but also Jørgen Strand Larsen. “I’m a hard-working striker, I think that I always compete for every ball like it is the last ball,” he said in a recent interview. Having won 25 aerial duels – more than 88% of comparable attackers – committed more fouls than 85% of others and ranking above 70% of forwards for defensive actions across major European leagues, those traits are frequently in evidence. Even outside the statistics, it’s evident in him chasing down the channels, harassing opponents to pass across defence instead of into midfield and in occupying at times more than one defender to leave space for on-running support teammates.
Yet the other half of his quote in the same interview noted “but the most important thing is to score goals”. He’s not quite flying in that regard yet, but four goals and an assist means an involvement every 180 minutes – which isn’t terrible for a team one off the bottom, in a new league after a terribly difficult run of games. And, of course, when he’s the second goal-provider, after teammate Cunha.
The Brazilian is on a goal or assist every 127 minutes this term, after five and two respectively so far. But he’s also 80th percentile or better in the league for shots, shots on target, successful crosses and fouls won, on a per 90 basis. On a league totals basis, he’s 90th percentile or thereabouts for goals, shots, expected assists, chances created, crosses, successful dribbles, touches in the box, duels won, shots blocked and possession won in the final third. That is a simply sensational all-round application of Cunha’s talents, up there with the league’s best in attack this season, even as Wolves are down there with the worst overall as a team. Getting those two playing in tandem as often as possible is job No. 1 for O’Neil.
Add in a powerful, hard-working and resilient midfield trio when all are fit and there’s a definite spine to build around, and yet more reason to fuel optimism. But there’s a whole other area to the Wolves team which needs quick, and significant, improvement.
Yes, injuries have hit. But the defence has been far too leaky even accounting for that. Their 27 goals conceded is comfortably the Premier League’s worst so far this season; keep this rate up and they are on course to see 93 put past them across the year. Only two teams in the history of the league have conceded more, one being last-year’s record setters Sheffield United. The other were Swindon, when it was still 42 matches player per season.
The xG tally against them shows they’ve not been quite that bad – or have been punished more than expected, whichever way you see it – putting them at around 20 against so far, but allowing seven more than they should doesn’t reflect well on either Sam Johnstone (-1.4 goals prevented) or, particularly, José Sá (-2.9). With just one clean sheet kept all season, it’s clear where the biggest improvements need to come. If they do, the talent at the other end will surely mean the old gold finally starts to climb the table.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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