Until last month, England had never lost a match against Greece in men’s football.
By Karl Matchett
History lesson
History heavily favoured the Three Lions in results and in storylines; even when they didn’t win, they still did in effect, such as with David Beckham’s injury time equaliser to send England to the World Cup. Even in club-level meetings the most memorable occasions tend to see the Premier League outfits beat the Super League ones: Liverpool thrashing Panathinaikos in the ‘85 European Cup semi-final; Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United all knocking out Olympiacos at the same stage in the space of a decade; Liverpool and their infamous late comeback to beat the same Greek side in the group stage, en route to winning the Champions League. It was all so heavily one sided – until it wasn’t, a month ago, with Greece triumphing at Wembley with a poignant celebration of their efforts and the memory of George Baldock. The Nations League might not have the same standing as some of those other games, but for Greece it was a night to rival most in their history; for England, lessons must be learned.
Form
These Nations League games are the last under Lee Carsley before Thomas Tuchel takes charge for England, so while form isn’t of much importance, impressing for places is – and they want promotion back to League A of course. That means there’s no choice but to win this game to try and top the table, with second spot only offering a playoff. If Greece even draw, they are up.
Who’s left in the England squad?
England suffered eight injury withdrawals from the initial squad, the most notable of which were Trent Alexander-Arnold – man of the match three times in four games for Carsley – along with Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice. There will be first caps on offer across the fortnight, but whether any come in this game will depend largely on the type of midfield the interim boss wants. Greece will likely look very similar to during their Wembley win, with all 11 starters from October included in this squad – though the likes of Kostas Tsimikas and Fotis Ioannidis may hope to come in.
Key players
For the hosts, Vangelis Pavlidis scored both goals at Wembley and is an obvious standout for inspection – at Benfica he’s actually more facilitator than scorer, with 2.1 chances created per 90 this term being better than any other similar forward in the Primeira.
As for England, injuries make a lineup tough to predict but Noni Madueke and Anthony Gordon look good shouts to start on the flanks and need to produce big games to improve their chances of nudging ahead of Saka, Phil Foden and the like. The Chelsea man’s non-penalty xG of 0.33/90 puts him ahead of 82% of similar players this term and 3.67 shots/90 is ahead of 93%. That’s a nice balance to Gordon’s crossing and creativity from the left.
Prediction
England to be somewhat more solid and disciplined than last time these sides met, enough to earn a win in a low-scoring game. 2-1 to the Three Lions.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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