The #BarclaysMan trend kept us all entertained on Twitter during the international break but the Premier League is back and we can all focus on that now. We’re spoilt on Saturday too, with four live games shown across the day, and there’s the North London derby to look forward to on Sunday.
By Sam McGuire
Before that though, here are some interesting tidbits to keep an eye on this weekend.
The Saints versus the (Red) Devils
Southampton host Manchester United this weekend looking to pick up their first points of the season. The Saints are just one of two teams left on zero points this term having lost all three of their opening games.
Russell Martin’s men haven’t had great luck since their return to the English top-flight. They have scored just one goal and have missed 100% of their Big Chances. They have carved out decent openings, racking up an Expected Goals haul of 3.5, and are actually ranked 14th for Expected Points. The underlying numbers have been positive, and they’ve been able to put their stamp on things having averaged 68.6% possession, they just haven’t been able to put the ball into the back of the net.
They might fancy their chances on Saturday afternoon against Man United. The Red Devils have been inconsistent, at best, this season, having won one and lost two of their opening three games.
All of the pressure is on Erik Ten Hag and his players heading into this game with the fans and the general public expecting a response to the 3-0 loss to Liverpool in their last outing. This isn’t a free hit for the Saints but it is one of those games in which there’s nothing to lose if Martin has his team be positive against their visitors.
The unstoppable force versus the immovable object
Nottingham Forest have had a deceptively good start to the season. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are unbeaten and sit in ninth position, one point ahead of the likes of Spurs and Chelsea and two points ahead of West Ham United and Manchester United.
They travel to Anfield on Saturday looking for their first win away at Liverpool since 1988.
This may come as a bit of a surprise but defensively, Forest have been one of the best in the Premier League this term. They have an Expected Goals Conceded total of just 2.1, a figure that can only be bettered by Manchester City.
Granted, the quality of the opposition needs to be taken into account, the 0.7 xG against average is significantly better than the 1.42 average of last season. Espírito Santo has made them difficult to break down.
But this has come at a cost, of sorts. For example, they average 15.3 fouls per 90 – the highest in the league this term, and they’ve already racked up seven yellow cards. They break up the game. They stop the opposition’s momentum. And this will no doubt be a priority against Liverpool this weekend.
The Reds are joint-top of the Premier League with nine points from three matches. They’re the only team not to have conceded a goal and they rank first for Expected Goals with 7.1 They are also top of the Big Chances Created table with 16 and, in Luis Díaz and Mohamed Salah, they possess two of the most in-form players in the league at this moment in time.
If Forest are to get anything from this game, they are going to have to be resilient and disruptive.
Tough times for Everton
Everton, along with Southampton, are the only other team in the Premier League yet to win a point. After a good showing in the transfer market, the expectation was that this might be the season they avoid the all-too familiar relegation battle. Yet here we are, midway through September, and they’re arguably the worst team in the league, on current form.
The Toffees have conceded the most goals (10), they have the third worst defensive record when looking at Expected Goals Against (6.2) and they rank 19th for possession with an average of 38%.
Their form is awful and in Aston Villa, they’re coming up against one of their bogey sides this weekend.
They travel to Villa Park on Saturday evening looking for their first win over the Villans in the Premier League since 2016. They did beat Unai Emery’s men last season but that was a Carabao Cup game.
Villa, so far, have looked a little rusty. They’re underperforming their Expected Goals and they have missed six of their 10 Big Chances. At some point, it is going to click for Emery and his players. It could well be this weekend against an Everton team that looks bereft of confidence.
A real test for Arsenald and Arteta
Arsenal have had a difficult start to the season. They have already faced Wolves, Aston Villa and Brighton, two of those are in the top seven at the time of writing. They are unbeaten but a draw with the Seagulls in their last outing ended their 100% record.
Mikel Arteta takes his side to Tottenham on Sunday without a number of key players. Declan Rice is suspended while skipper Martin Ødegaard is injured and new signing Mikel Merino is ruled out until October. There are also doubts over Riccardo Calafiori and Gabriel Jesus.
The Gunners have a good record against Spurs, losing just one of their previous seven against their North London rivals. However, a combination of injuries and an underhwlming start to the season could see a surprise result.
For context, Spurs have a higher xG this season and their xG Against is identical to Arsenal. Ange Postecoglou’s men rank first for possession, first for possessions won in the final third and first for touches in the opposition box. The narrative is the Gunners head into this as favourites but Spurs will fancy their chances, and rightly so.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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