Spain are through to the semi-finals of Euro 2024; if that statement alone doesn’t come as a surprise to many, the manner of it might do as their rock-solid control slipped for once and they had to dig deep to get past the hosts, Germany, and find a late winner in extra time.
It was not a victory without cost, though, and the true measure of this Spain squad may now come in a different way entirely: in the depth of their squad and the ability of manager Luis de la Fuente to find options within it.
Of course, going deep in a tournament is rarely going to be straight-forward and Spain – or any other nation – would always have to face challenges without a player or two along the way. But a semi-final date against World Cup finalists France, and with a minimum of three key starters missing, is not the way De la Fuente would have chosen to be examined in that regard.
The first absentee might be the best, but conversely, also the most-replaceable option. Pedri went off injured against Germany within minutes of kick-off in the last eight, and appears unlikely to play again during this tournament – but his replacement, Dani Olmo, is of a starting calibre in his own right and proved the matchwinner against the hosts, scoring one and setting up another.
Two further players are out of the semi suspended: right-back Dani Carvajal, booked and then sent-off against Germany, and centre-back Robin Le Normand – born in France, incidentally.
Spain’s squad means there are fairly like-for-like replacements in terms of experience, with Jesús Navas and Nacho likely to come in for each one respectively. They are not, however, like-for-like in performance terms and where their strengths necessarily lie.
Olmo is the biggest positive of the lot, regardless.
While teenage superstar Lamine Yamal leads the way in the Spain squad for xG+xA/90 with 0.85, Olmo isn’t far behind Pedri (0.78), on 0.75 himself, ahead of left winger Nico Williams (0.70). And, indeed, his actual output outperforms his teammates: Olmo’s double goal contribution against Germany is added to a goal against Georgia and an assist in the groups when facing Albania, giving him 1.36 goals or assists per 90 minutes in total. Nobody else has 1.0 per 90.
Around the Euros, it’s really only Netherlands attacker Donyell Malen (1.24) and Germany’s Niclas Füllkrug (1.12) who get close to his tally – similar to Olmo they have been super subs or rotation options so far. Of starters, Cody Gakpo (1.04) and Georges Mikautadze (1.04) are the standouts, again significantly lower than Olmo.
While there’s no getting around Pedri being a big miss, Olmo both mitigates his absent quality and brings his own form to the party, a player who can both help Spain break down France’s stubborn back line and also add a clinical touch himself in front of goal – it’s worth noting Spain have scored just once in each of their two games against notable opponents, even though they’ve had a bit of a goal glut in the other two encounters.
That is significant for two reasons, one being the obvious of Spain needing to score to win. The other is that they might need to use their attack as their best line of defence for this fixture: France have been perhaps the least attractive of all big nations at this tournament – yes, including England – with a collective set of scorelines reading 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0. But while they might bore viewers to tears, the most notable aspect for opponents is the low volume of goals conceded, and even chances – four clean sheets and just one goal allowed from a cumulative xG of 4.5.
Spain cannot allow this game to drift. France are absolutely happy to do that – they’ve already held their nerve doing so against Belgium and Portugal, and back themselves to keep opponents at bay and wait for their chance to strike. The issue there for La Roja is that they’ll be playing with an entirely unfamiliar defence, half of it suspended, one of them – Navas on the right – not even a career full-back, but rather one pressed into service there as age caught up with him.
Once a speedy winger, he’ll now be facing the most rapid and talented of all in Kylian Mbappé, if the expected lineups materialise. Again: France will sit and wait, happy in the knowledge that something will likely go their way, especially with a matchup like this.
So attack must be Spain’s way forward. They are a proactive and possession-oriented team anyway, but the speed of play and movement will be key. That latter point may mean Mikel Oyarzabal starts over Álvaro Morata, who was also thought to be suspended following a yellow card dished out in the chaos of last night, but has since had that clarified as a case of mistaken identity by UEFA, but Olmo – along with the starting stars out wide – will remain the key regardless.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from Euro 2024 live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.