The opening match in Group C between Poland and the Netherlands is crucial for both teams, but for very different reasons.
By Ian King
Starting with a win would ease the Netherlands’ passage towards the knockout stages. With France to play next, three points may be essential if they’re to go into their final round of fixtures without any nerves hanging in the air.
A point from this game and a win against Austria five days later would almost certainly be enough to put Poland through with a game to spare themselves. Otherwise, they may find themselves having to take something from their final match against France to give themselves a chance.
Places in the next round are available for four of the six third-placed finishing teams this summer, but the chances of getting through diminish, the fewer points they have. In 2021, three of them had four points and one had three. In 2016, two had four points and two had three. Four points doesn’t guarantee a passage through but it does make it highly likely, while three makes it a crapshoot in which your goal difference will matter.
But how likely is a surprise from Poland? If a week is a long time in politics, then 45 years is definitely a long time in football. May 1979 was the last time that Poland beat the Netherlands, in a qualifier for the European Championships of 1980. The two sides have met twelve times since then, with seven Dutch wins and five draws.
Back in the 21st century, reports of the retirement of Robert Lewandowski turned out to be overstated, so hopefully he’ll be starting for, and captaining Poland, presuming the thigh injury he suffered in their final warm-up game is as insignificant as head coach Michał Probierz claimed after the match (there were mixed messages on that in the media). Matty Cash misses the tournament with the calf injury that overshadowed the end of his league season. Poland were dependent on their Nations League form to get this far, and will start as group outsiders.
The Dutch have also had injury concerns, with Frenkie De Jong out since March and the Liverpool-pursued Teun Koopmeiners also now ruled out by a late injury. Jurrien Timber didn’t make the cut after failing to recover in time from the ACL injury he picked on his Arsenal debut last August. The Netherlands will start as comfortable favourites to win but they’ve imploded in tournament finals before, haven’t they?
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from Euro 2024 live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.