With the final Bundesliga matchday almost upon us, things are far from decided at the bottom of the pack. The fates of as many as four teams could be decided on matchday 34. Darmstadt’s relegation has already been decided but who else will join them?
By Ninad Barbadikar
Last season saw Schalke and Hertha Berlin slip down into the second division with Stuttgart managing to stay up via the playoffs. This year, the race for survival features four teams in particular, Bochum, Union Berlin, Mainz as well as FC Cologne. For Union, this is a fall from grace that not many would have expected, at least not in the way that it has happened. From the glitz and glamour of facing Real Madrid and Napoli in the Champions League to fighting for their top-flight status.
Bochum’s home form has helped them keep their neck above water but consistently poor results away has only made things more difficult. Meanwhile Mainz and Cologne have only recently experienced the benefits of the changes brought about by new managers Bo Henriksen and Timo Schultz respectively.
So how have these teams found themselves in this pickle?
Union Berlin
Bundesliga neutrals for the longest time had become almost accustomed to Union Berlin’s overachieving league finishes since their promotion in 2019. Qualifying for the Europa League in only their third season in the top flight was incredible enough but Fischer’s Union then went one step further, making it to the Champions League.
However, after back-to-back seasons with European football, this is the season that things stopped clicking for Urs Fischer at the An der Alten Försterei, eventually paving the path for a mutually agreed exit.
Qualification for the Champions League perhaps necessitated spending for Union Berlin, but there is an argument to be made that their recruitment wasn’t following the trend of shrewd investments they’ve made since coming up into the league.
Especially in forward areas, Union’s recruitment have bet on a number of strikers to come good which simply hasn’t panned out thus far. Mikkel Kaufmann has failed to make a real impression, Benedict Hollerbach has had his moments and David Fofana’s loan-spell was cut short in January.
Following Fischer’s departure, the club backed new boss Nenad Bjelica in the market, acquiring Chris Bedia as well as Yorbe Vertessen. Whilst the latter has shown promising end product, Bedia is yet to get a proper run in the team which begs the question of why Union decided to sign him in the first place.
After a run of just three defeats in 11 Bundesliga games, it seemed like the new manager bounce from Bjelica had done enough for Union. However, failure to sustain results meant a goodbye for Bjelica and his staff as well.
Amongst the bottom three in the league for Expected Goals (xG) overall, Union’s set-piece strengths of recent seasons seem to have deserted them this term, in addition their regression in finishing ability overall.
All of the aforementioned factors have come together to cook up a season to forget for Die Eisernen. However, their Bundesliga future could still be in their hands if they can manage to beat Freiburg on the final day of the season, combined with results helping them elsewhere.
Mainz
Of all the teams you would back to get a result on matchday 34, Henriksen’s Mainz are one to back. Finding form at the perfect time in the league, they are on an unbeaten streak of eight games and if you stretch it back even further, they’ve lost just twice in the last twelve.
After Bo Svensson’s departure earlier in the season and Jan Siewert’s failure to steady the ship, Mainz have found the third time charm with Henriksen. Brimming with positivity before each game and hyping the fans all by himself, Henriksen’s methods are certainly paying off.
Last weekend’s 3-0 drubbing of an admittedly weakened Borussia Dortmund side has placed them in excellent stead ahead of the final clash against Wolfsburg away from home.
A crucial factor in getting a result here would be the form of striker Jonathan Burkardt, who has been instrumental in Mainz’s successes of late. Scoring seven goals and assisting two since his return from a long-term injury, Burkardt’s contributions have been timely.
Combine that with the exciting attacking potential of Jae-Sung Lee, Nadiem Amiri and Brajan Gruda, Ralph Hassenhuttl and Wolfsburg are sure to have their hands full at home on matchday 34.
Ahead of Union Berlin in 16th by two points, all that Mainz need to do is either match or better Union’s result against Freiburg, to secure Bundesliga safety for another year.
FC Cologne
After the departure of legendary manager Steffen Baumgart at Cologne, it seemed like salvaging their Bundesliga status was always going to be a tall order for Schultz given the quality of the squad. With 27 goals, they have the fewest total scored in the German top flight ahead of the final matchday.
Despite their goalscoring struggles, Cologne are still within a slim chance of Bundesliga survival, as they prepare to face newcomers Heidenheim who have had a stellar first season in the league.
Only relegated Darmstadt have a higher xG tally this term than the Billygoats, underlining just how much they’ve missed the attacking output from the likes of Davie Selke and the rest of their arsenal. The emergence of Max Finkgräfe has been a silver lining in an otherwise grim season for Cologne fans.
A long-term heir to Jonas Hector at the RheinENERGIE Stadion seems to have finally been discovered, with the young German impressing many with his industrious work up and down the left flank.
After two back-to-back ties at home where they failed to find the back of the next, Cologne seemingly found their shooting boots at the right time to produce an incredible comeback to win 3-2 against Union Berlin to take the outcome of this relegation battle to the final matchday.
Two forwards came off the bench to secure that exhilarating result, Steffen Tigges and Damion Downs, the latter has been involved in some big moments for Schultz’s side this season.
Results elsewhere will have to come together for Cologne to secure survival. They must win against Heidenheim, hope Union lose to Freiburg, and score enough against Heidenheim to overturn the goal difference in their favour.
Bochum
Perhaps the least amount of pressure in terms of winning is on Heiko Butscher’s Bochum who head to Bremen to take on Ole Werner’s Werder side on the final matchday.
A draw will be enough for Die Blauen away from home, repeating the outcome from their reverse fixture earlier in the season. They’ve failed to beat Bremen since returning to the Bundesliga and with their 10 losses on the road this season from 17 played, Butscher will hope his side can secure the point they need to stay up.
With just two wins since the end of February, the pressure has been on Bochum to get their Bundesliga survival over the line. Manager Thomas Letsch paid the price for a poor run of results and now the club’s former youth team coach has been tasked with steering them to safety.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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