One win in their last nine in all competitions, no clean sheets in two months, only out of the relegation zone by a single point, four points deducted for financial threshold breaches and two of their remaining Premier League games against Manchester City and Chelsea. It’s not an ideal time right now for Nottingham Forest, but they have one ace in the pack who can still save their season.
Amid a rotating cast of attackers and support forwards, Morgan Gibbs-White stands alone. The former Wolverhampton Wanderers man has become a must-have player in the team, a standard-bearer of consistency in terms of his technical play, but also an aggressive, committed member of the team who is fighting for the cause and carrying out the tactical roles required of him.
Gibbs-White has, in fact, played the most league minutes this term of any Forest player, by quite some distance: a little over 2,700 to his name, with centre-back Murillo next at fewer than 2,500.
A hard-working outlet, he takes up clever spaces, receives the ball under pressure and has the vision in his game to execute both more inventive, difficult passes…And the more frequent, necessary ones too, keeping possession and allowing his team to reset after, at-times, long spells of defensive pressure.
But when it comes to surviving the battle against relegation, goals are going to be everything in Forest’s last six, and he’s the one who can provide them. Three assists and two scored in his last five attest to his form, as much as his involvement. But season-long he has been a key figure for Forest, the conduit of the team and the man around who the rest of the attack must be built.
With 61 chances created this term, it’s not hard to see why. Not only is that over double the amount of the squad’s next-highest player – Anthony Elanga has made 29 chances – it’s also comparable with some of the finest creators in the Premier League: Phil Foden has created 61, Kieran Trippier 63, Cole Palmer 52. With 12 big chances included in those, Gibbs-White is fashioning high-value scoring opportunities, too.
Combine that incisive passing with the fact he’s fourth in the team for shots per 90 minutes (2.0), second for successful dribbles (1.4) and top for expected assists (5.7, to seven actual assists) and it’s no surprise that he is the man for all types of attacks, whether he’s at the heart of fashioning them or looking to play the final ball. Unsurprisingly, Gibbs-White tops Forest’s squad list for overall FotMob rating this season (7.22) and in comparison to other players in his role, ranks at 82% for chances created in total – not bad at all considering his place in a team battling relegation.
While not a shot monster himself, Gibbs-White isn’t afraid to take on chances at goal when they are presented his way, but he understands his true value to the team has to be in creating large volumes of them for others – which also allows him to then be behind play should those efforts not pan out, able to again contribute in midfield. Notably, the 24-year-old ranks extremely highly for aerials – in the 92nd percentile for duels won among players in his role – and it’s this almost box-to-box ability to contribute where they will really need him over the coming weeks.
Gibbs-White was on the scoresheet, and perhaps poignantly, against his former club over the weekend, as Forest once again claimed a point against Wolves. It was another home game where they failed to secure back-to-back wins, though, after beating Fulham last time out at the City Ground.
Their remaining three games, aside from the two against bigger opposition, would then be against direct rivals for the drop: Everton, Sheffield United, Burnley. There is simply no question that Gibbs-White is one of the top performers out of any of those squads this season, and one of the best across the board from a technical and attacking output perspective.
Nuno’s job has to be to get the right players around him so that fewer of those chances created are spurned, and the right players behind him to both provide a platform of defensive resolve and to provide a constant supply line to him.
If Forest can do that, Gibbs-White can fashion enough goalmouth opportunities to give them a real chance of staying up…And then their toughest remaining job might be to keep him beyond summer.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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