Leeds and Leicester have been the headline grabbers in the Championship for much of the past few months, but earlier in the campaign it was Ipswich Town who led the way, storming to a lead at the top in their first season as a second tier team for five years. While their early lead evaporated, a recent return to form and a three-game winning streak means they’ll head into the local derby, away to Norwich City, top of the table by a point – and looking to harm the play-off ambitions of their rivals as much as push their own claims for automatic promotion spot to the Premier League.
Local rivalries don’t usually need more than geographical proximity to matter. But there’s every chance that the Tractor Boys in particular see this game as meaning more, being a chance to heal an old wound in particular.
Rewind the clock almost a full decade and in 2014/15, Ipswich and Norwich both finished in the play-off spots, both looking to book a return to the top flight. They met in the semis; the first leg finished 1-1 and the second leg was the same scoreline after an hour – but two more strikes for the Canaries sent them through to Wembley and, ultimately, up into the Premier League.
As Norwich have spent most of the last decade or so bouncing between the top two tiers, that was the first time in a while that Ipswich had threatened to oust them as the power in the East; they’ve not since finished in the top six in the Championship and within four seasons were relegated. When the teams met in December, indeed, it was the first derby fixture in very nearly four years.
All of which makes this clash far more pertinent for both. Ipswich have promotion in their sights once more, and not just through the playoffs – they want silverware to go with the celebrations. And Norwich, after an abject start, have the playoffs very much in their sights: they sit sixth with a four-point buffer to the nearest club beneath them, although David Wagner’s Canaries have also played at least one match more than everyone around them.
With only six matches remaining for both these clubs, any slip-up now, any dropped points, could prove enormously costly.
Ipswich, 23 points better off than Norwich and with one of the best away records in the second tier, will start the game as favourites. But at this level, good away form merely means winning as many as you don’t win: 11 victories for the Tractor Boys, compared to nine non-wins. It’s a tough league to triumph on the road in, so that’s a very good strike-rate. On home soil then, necessarily, an excellent record is required to break into the top few sides in the league – and here is where Norwich excel.
Two months ago this column – here – made note that in a race between at least nine clubs, Norwich should be considered favourites for one of the two likely available playoff places – largely on account of their capacity to win at Carrow Road. Since then they have rattled off a further five straight wins at their stadium, making it seven in a row altogether and 10 wins from the last 13.
That equates to the third-best home record in the league – only Leeds and Ipswich themselves have more wins, more points at home – and means they’ve taken half a dozen points more there than Ipswich have on the road.
Then there’s the Josh Sargent factor. The American forward is a man in form for Norwich, top of the Championship charts for shots on target per 90 (1.8) and second behind only Jamie Vardy (0.95) for goals per 90 (0.93) this term. And in supply terms for him, Gabriel Sara is third in the Championship with chances created (102) and the only Ipswich player who can match that is Leif Davis (106) – with a large percentage of his from set plays.
In that particular battle, Davis leads the assists 16 to 11, but Sara has created one big chance more (14-13) and edges the xA per 90 too (0.26 – 0.25).
At the same time, it’s perhaps worth noting that Norwich goalkeeper Angus Gunn has a 68% save rate for the campaign, while Ipswich’s No.1 Vaclav Hladky is again somewhat lower, 66% – and with nine goals more conceded.
Three points in this game will put either side within touching distance of their primary objective for the entire year. A late collapse can still happen, but boosted by such a result would be improbable. It would also, of course, hamper their rivals in doing the same. The 2024/25 Premier League might yet see both Anglian clubs involved, for the first time in nearly 30 years. But 90 minutes at Carrow Road this weekend could determine which one has the biggest shot – and the bragging rights of the east.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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