There was a time when Álvaro Morata was seen as not quite a joke figure, perhaps, but a figurehead forward for the eternally second rate all the same: good enough to be signed by some top teams, but never quite good enough to be their main man. Not in a reliable fashion, in any case. Perhaps no longer. Now he’s not just Atlético Madrid’s main man in attack, but their biggest hope of success this season.
Maybe their only hope, given inconsistencies and injuries elsewhere. Antoine Griezmann, for example, is a magnificent talent – but an ankle injury has seen him miss matches recently and tonight’s second leg of the Champions League last-16 against Inter Milan will likely be added to the list.
It leaves Morata to seek to plunder at least one goal to get Atleti back in the tie – and there’s every reason to think he might do that. As it stands, the 31-year-old Spain international is only one goal off the competition’s top scorers: his five, to the six of Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland and Harry Kane. If that’s the company he’s able to match, it’s a good start to suggesting he’s among the elite.
In Spain, it’s a similar story. Only two players have more than Morata’s 14 this season, Borja Mayoral (15) of Getafe and Jude Bellingham (16) of Real Madrid. Add in a solitary Copa del Rey strike and it’s 20 in all competitions for Morata, the first time he has reached the milestone since 20/21 with Juventus.
There’s just one issue: the goals have dried up of late, with one in his last ten.
That has been a problem previously for Morata. He is a work horse, his hold-up play is good when on top of his game, his channel running as an outlet is important and he never hides, even when the goals don’t flow. But if not exactly a streaky type of striker, he’s certainly been prone to being a mixed bag in the penalty box across the course of his career.
On the other side of the argument, it can be suggested he’s overperforming in such an inconsistent Atlético team. His 14 league goals this term have come from 52 shots inside the box – in other words, very nearly 27 per cent of those efforts end up in the back of the net. For context, it’s 32 per cent for Kane in the Bundesliga, 29 for Mbappé in Ligue 1 and 21 for Haaland in the Premier League.
Morata also actually edges the trio for on-target accuracy: 53 per cent to the others all in the 47-48 bracket. Furthermore, he’s outperforming his xG of 12.4 by a couple of goals and is doing the same in Europe, five goals from 17 shots tallying an xG of 3.42.
Within his team, Morata leads the way on shots on target per 90 and xGOT…and by definition of his job, in big chances missed, too. His detractors will point to those 21 opportunities – not just more than any teammate but more than anyone else in LaLiga – as evidence of his ongoing failure to reach the very, very highest level. Additionally, there’s a question of whether he offers enough outside of his finishing work: one assist, just three chances created in the Champions League and only ten in LaLiga all season, do not paint the picture of an all-round forward, as are in such demand in the modern game.
Yet perhaps that’s by design. Diego Simeone’s team can be more expansive at times than they used to be, and still leave players more reductive than they are capable of. This is a team which has won 18 of 20 home matches in all competitions this season, yet only twice on the road since late November.
Being knocked out of the Copa del Rey semi-finals, losing the first leg of the last-16 in Europe and a defeat at relegation-threatened Cádiz does not make for the ideal build-up to a memorable comeback night at the Metropolitano, especially against an Inter side in such outstanding form.
Much will rest on Morata’s shoulders to find a route to goal, to find a route back into the tie. He might not provide the most for the team in actually fashioning those chances, but as his finishing this season suggests, that’s not what you want him for – Simeone will want his No. 19 on the end of them instead. If he is, this remains a tie and a team which could yet go the distance.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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