To absolutely nobody’s surprise, Pep Guardiola’s team rolled into the Champions League quarter-finals last week, dispatching rank outsiders FC København 6-2 on aggregate to book a place in the last eight with ease.
Pitching the reigning continental champions against surely the biggest outsiders left involved was never likely to throw up an upset – but there are a few sides in the competition who might be looking at Manchester City’s form this season and the opponents who have given them trouble…and thinking they can be the team to knock them out and lift the European Cup this time instead.
In reverse order, here are the best-positioned teams to challenge Man City and prevent a back-to-back triumph.
5. Inter Milan – chance: 1/5
Serie A league leaders Internazionale are definitely an outside bet to win the Champions League overall, but if the question is over whether they could beat them across two legs in the quarters or semis, that has to be a yes.
Defensively resolute, Simone Inzaghi’s side have conceded just 0.7 goals per game in Europe this term, the joint-lowest of any team and comfortably lower than City’s 1.1. They don’t have the all-out firepower to go toe-to-toe, averaging only 4.7 shots on target per game (City are 8.8) and creating 21 big chances (City 37).
But if they get themselves ahead in a tie, they will be very difficult to get past – as Atlético Madrid will have to find out in Wednesday’s second leg.
4. Bayern Munich – chance: 2/5
The Bavarian giants are through to the last eight along with City, after turning around a first-leg deficit to beat Lazio. They are well off their best level and unlikely to triumph domestically, but we’ve seen big clubs raise their game in Europe before.
Their big danger: Harry Kane, of course. He knows perfectly well how to get past Guardiola’s team and is the tournament’s joint-top scorer along with Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland – the world’s top three No. 9s these days. Add in assists and Kane is clear in Champions League goal contributions this term.
If Thomas Tuchel can rally the troops for European matches, Bayern will remain a threat, albeit an inconsistent one.
3. Arsenal – chance: 2/5
The Gunners are showing domestically they can match Man City both across 90 minutes and across a period of months. But they have not yet shown they can do so across an entire season, nor across a two-legged tie. In a final, you might back Arsenal to do the job – but their squad has not yet been able to come through the biggest pressure situations at the back end of seasons successfully.
In other words, if they come across City in the last eight or four, there’s little reason to trust they can cope…yet.
Arsenal are also in the same three-way title fight as Man City and, most notably, are a goal down in their last-16 clash. Could they beat City? Sure. But they’ll have to earn the right to do so from behind, so can’t rank any higher for now. An open play xG tally of 0.11 in that first leg at Porto doesn’t suggest they have Europe all figured out just yet.
2. PSG – chance: 3/5
Probably one of the teams you’d suggest could beat Man City in a two-legged tie, but still would be hesitant to back to win the competition outright on account of their inexplicable capacity to find new ways of embarrassing themselves.
PSG’s domestic season is all but wrapped up meaning they can concentrate on the Champions League again, but that hasn’t done them much good in the past.
Mbappé is obviously the star and he can destroy anyone single-handedly, but in Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé, the Paris side have a threat across the front line and a more ruthless, pragmatic manager in Luis Enrique. Mbappé has the highest xGOT and most big chances created in the competition this season.
1. Real Madrid – chance: 4/5
Perhaps the only team with both the form and the expectation are Real Madrid. They have the weight of history behind them too, but also a much more tangible difference to City: their title fight is inching closer to being wrapped up in LaLiga.
That might allow Carlo Ancelotti to rest players, preserve his strongest 11 for midweek encounters and go all-in on a European assault.
In number terms, Jude Bellingham has most assists in the competition, while Real as a team are second in the Champions League for total xG, accurate passes, corners and touches in the opposition box. On the downside, Man City top each of those metrics. Wildcard in the pack: Joselu has the best xG per 90 in the competition.
If it comes down to a City vs Real final, it will be the modern heavyweights against the club of the century – and perhaps the only team in this year’s competition with a genuinely great chance of knocking the holders aside.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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