In what is perhaps one of the closest and most tightly contested Premier League title races ever, just one point separates the top three with 10 games left to play. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City can barely be split after about half a year’s worth of action, so what could decide this epic battle as we reach the business end of the season?
By Neel Shelat
Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola faced off for what was most likely the last time ever in the English Premier League as Liverpool took on Manchester City this weekend. The result did not disappoint, as we were treated to yet another thrilling match between the two best English teams of the last decade. The outcome of the match – a 1-1 draw – however, benefitted Arsenal the most as they ended the weekend at the top of the standings on goal difference.
As Manchester City seek to become the first team in English football history to lift four consecutive league titles, they are clearly going to be pushed all the way. Liverpool have been motivated by the desire to give Klopp the ultimate send-off after he announced that he would leave the club at the end of the season, while Guardiola’s former assistant Mikel Arteta aims to end a two-decade wait for a Premier League title at Arsenal.
Each of these teams have clear strengths and weaknesses, so let us take a close look at them individually.
Arsenal
Since Arteta took charge of the club in the middle of the 2019/20 season, Arsenal have grown leaps and bounds. Despite failing to do better than 8th in his first full season at the club, the Gunners have since gone on to return to Europe, the Champions League, and the summit of the Premier League standings.
Indeed, they spent a good deal of time at the top last season as well, but their title charge fell apart altogether in the home stretch as injury issues caught up with them. After another strong summer transfer window and with an improved approach to players’ load management, Arsenal look stronger than ever this time.
If the age-old adage ‘defence wins you titles’ is true, then the trophy must go to London. Arsenal have not only conceded the fewest goals in the league this season, but more importantly they are quite clearly the best team in the country (and likely the world) out of possession when it comes to pressing and counterpressing. Unsurprisingly, then, they have the lowest xG conceded tally in the division by some margin.
There was a point in the middle of the season when concerns rose about Arsenal having placed too much emphasis on the defensive side of things and lost some attacking firepower, but that has been more than alleviated in recent weeks with explosive wins over the likes of West Ham, Burnley, Newcastle United and Sheffield United. Bukayo Saka very much is their main attacking output producer but has decent support from the likes of Martin Ødegaard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Declan Rice, so scoring goals should not be much of a problem for the Gunners.
Perhaps the biggest concern for them, then, must be their tough fixture schedule. High-pressure games such as London derbies against Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur could prove decisive in the final weeks of the season, while the visit to the Etihad Stadium in their next Premier League game could set the tone for the home stretch of the season. Add to that the potential of more Champions League knockouts (should they turn around a deficit against Porto this week) for a squad that is not used to competing on so multiple fronts, and it becomes clear why Arsenal fans should not expect smooth sailing until the end of the season.
Liverpool
Speaking of smooth sailing, Liverpool have barely had any of it this season but that is in no small part by design.
Injury issues have compounded squad depth issues that were evident before the season even began, so youngsters like Jarell Quansah and Conor Bradley have had to become regular first-team players in their first full season of senior football. Still, the Reds have somehow sustained a title charge.
A massive portion of the credit for their success must go to their manager. Klopp not only deserved heaps of praise for his trust in academy graduates throughout his tenure, but he has also shown great tactical nouse this season to get the best out of an imbalanced squad. Unlike their two title rivals, Liverpool do not play with a great deal of control and patience in possession due to their lack of a top-class defensive midfielder in the ilk of Rodri or Declan Rice. Instead, they are happy to adopt a much more direct approach which has certainly worked so far.
Liverpool have not scored the most goals this season, but they have been the best attacking team in the league by most other metrics, including big chances created, and Expected Goals (xG).
Even so, the Reds have been the third-best team in this title race on the balance of things overall. Their defence has been particularly leaky relative to their chief competitors, and while their goalkeepers have bailed them out on many an occasion, this cannot be deemed a sustainable approach.
This season, though, it might just work. There is something to be said about character and resilience which underlying numbers cannot show, and Liverpool have that in spades. They showed this when a team largely comprised of academy youngsters saw out the EFL Cup win, when they scored a dramatic last-minute winner to beat Nottingham Forest, and not least when they turned the tide around against the defending champions.
Manchester City
This is perhaps the worst Manchester City have been in the last four years, so the fact that they are still firmly in contention for three major trophies speaks volumes about the incredible level they are operating on.
Of course, the reason they are at this level cannot be ignored. They have spent at a rate that most teams can scarcely conceive in the last decade and a half, and perhaps excessively as 115 charges of breaches of the Premier League’s Financial Fair Play policy loom over their achievements. The outcome of that case will not be known any time soon, so for now they must be beaten fairly and squarely on the pitch.
That is much easier said than done, as the title holders are unbeaten in 21 matches in all competitions stretching back to last December. Their fixture schedule looks the best after next weekend’s critical clash against Arsenal is out of the way, as they only have two opponents in the current top six – Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur – and no derbies to worry about.
Perhaps most importantly, Guardiola should have a full-strength squad to call upon in the business end of the season. As the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland and Jack Grealish have missed good chunks of the season so far, Phil Foden and Julián Álvarez have stepped up to ensure City did not go short on attacking firepower.
With everyone bar Grealish fit and firing now, the pieces and falling in to place for Manchester City to mount a title charge on three fronts between the league, FA Cup, and Champions League. Guardiola’s men have been like a relentless machine that always clicks at the most important part of the season in recent years, so it is always very difficult to bet against them.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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