Five points clear, and at the perfect time. Real Madrid are suddenly not just in the driving seat to reclaim the title in LaLiga, but also perhaps looking one of the few sides capable of outgunning Manchester City in Europe, as the Champions League prepares to resume at the knockout stages.
Carlo Ancelotti’s team have been playing chase for a lot of the campaign, in Spain, but a recent run of six straight wins in the top flight put them within touching distance of surprise leaders Girona and then usurped them; a weekend thrashing of the same opponents means the gap is suddenly five points at the top, suddenly looking as though Los Blancos may not be caught.
There remains the possibility they slip up, of course, but with only one league loss to their name in 2023/24, with Barcelona ten points off the pace and looking fragile, and no other challenger in sight, LaLiga is very much Real’s to lose at this point with 14 matches to play.
While Los Blancos have suffered injuries this season, they have been able to count upon a core in midfield more often than not, enabling Ancelotti to field his preferred system of the season: a midfield diamond with two mobile attackers leading the line, giving Jude Bellingham licence to attack from deep in the No. 10 role and reaping the rewards of the England man’s force, technique and above all else, his consistent final-third threat.
A brace against Girona took Bellingham to 16 LaLiga goals this campaign, one clear at the top of the scoring charts, but before his strikes came a brilliant opener from Vinícius Jr. The Brazilian has not had matters entirely his own way this term, but a slow start looks to have been well and truly overcome: it’s five goals and three assists in his last six LaLiga games, including one and two of each respectively at the weekend in a thumping all-round performance.
Vinícius is one of those to have had his role altered somewhat this term by the new set-up. Previously most frequently seen on the left in a three-man attack, a subtle alteration now sees him still attacking the left channel, but as effectively one of two forwards. It does mean more central starting positions at times – and thus more contact with centre-backs, more back-to-goal play from time to time – but also more opportunities to link play, to create space for others and, recently, to exploit increased focus on the likes of Bellingham.
Now averaging a 0.44 xG per 90 minutes for the campaign, there’s surely more to come: Vini still ranks outside LaLiga’s top 50 for total chances created (18) and big chances created (four) and outside the top 25 for total xG (5.4). On the other hand he’s third for dribbles per 90 (3.7) – yet also ranks fifth for big chances missed (11). A mixed bag in terms of the numbers; a clear upward trajectory in terms of recent form.
One of Real’s most gifted players, it’s a surprise at this stage to see him still only level with Joselu and behind Rodrygo for league goals scored this term, though he also missed six weeks with a hamstring injury of his own across winter, so his compatriot at least has played 500 minutes more. Perhaps that enforced break has done Vinícius some good. He already has more goals and assists combined post-injury, than he managed beforehand – in half the number of games.
Heading back onto the big stage and with European glory always the prerequisite of a Real Madrid season, the timing couldn’t be better – especially if Ancelotti is forced to be without Bellingham for any extended period of time, after he suffered an ankle injury against Girona.
Real Madrid have more reasons to think they can land a 15th European Cup. Ancelotti, of all people, knows how to navigate this competition. A healthy domestic lead, too, could see them rotate at times one or two key figures to leave them fresh for midweek exertions – while last-16 opponents RB Leipzig are not in good form, winning just one of their last six. But more important than the form guide will be Ancelotti’s set-up.
Behind the Brazilian forward duo, a powerhouse midfield is full of running, of tenacity, of intelligence. Eduardo Camavinga and Fede Valverde have provided the energy and supply line either side of Toni Kroos, relentless ball-winners with a cutting edge in their ability to dribble at pace.
As with most teams even at the elite end of the game, one or two question marks remain, particularly in the triangle of goalkeeper and centre-backs. It only takes one error sometimes to lose out. But Ancelotti has his diamond which gleams, and another, more individual diamond, at the top of it, coming into form and looking full of confidence. Vinícius Jr. looks capable of firing Madrid to silverware once again.
(Image from IMAGO)
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