The chaotic Liverpool forward simultaneously makes the Reds more of a threat while also being almost solely responsible for their erratic nature in the penalty area due to his inconsistent finishing.
By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert
With him in the starting XI, Jürgen Klopp’s side are more dangerous. That is indisputable. Liverpool don’t rack up a record-breaking Expected Goals haul against Newcastle United without the No. 9 leading the line.
The German manager said as much in his post-match interview: “We were talking outside, it was 100% the right decision to bring Darwin today because he kept [Sven] Botman and [Fabian] Schar together, that gave us the space for everything else. It is completely different if Cody [Gakpo] is there.”
However, there is an argument to be made that we might’ve been talking about a record-breaking scoreline had it not been for the former Benfica man. He had a total of eight shots and was substituted in the 64th minute having amassed an Expected Goals total of 1.7. He missed three big chances at Anfield on Monday evening.
The 24-year-old now leads the way in the Premier League for Big Chances Missed with 18, one more than Erling Haaland. These missed chances aren’t as much of an issue for the City man though due to his 14 goals and 18.4% conversion rate. By comparison, Darwin has five Premier League goals this term and a conversion rate of just 6.1%.
Of those in the top 10 for Big Chances Missed, only Rasmus Højlund has a worse conversion rate (3.7%).
These two metrics alone are enough for people to declare Darwin to be a poor finisher. But that isn’t necessarily true.
The numbers paint a picture of an unlucky finisher. In fact, he’s arguably the unluckiest forward in the Premier League.
Darwin has an Expected Goals total for the season in the Premier League of 8.66. Generally speaking, when a player is underperforming their underlying numbers, it is an issue with finishing and this is shown when the Expected Goals on Target total is looked at. This stats assigns a value to where efforts land on target rather than where they are taken from. For example, a shot from 18-yards out may have an xG value of just 0.07 but if it hits the bottom corner, it will have an xG on Target value of 0.45. In this scenario, the shooter has increased the value of the attempt by 0.38.
Poor finishers, however, will devalue attempts. They do this by hitting shots centrally or at comfortable heights for goalkeepers.
Gabriel Jesus is someone who regularly underperforms when compared to his xG. This season, the Arsenal forward has an xG total of 4.84 but has scored just three goals. His xG on Target total is 3.83. He’s devalued his efforts by an entire goal, so that explains why he’s underperforming as a finisher.
The Liverpool No. 9 doesn’t have this issue though. He’s actually adding value to his efforts with the placement. He’s just one of five players in the Premier League to have an xG on Target total in double digits (10.2) this season.
Mohamed Salah (14.5) leads the way with Haaland (13.5) in second. Jarrod Bowen (11.8) and Dominic Solanke (10.2) make up the top five, along with Darwin. The Uruguayan is the only player within this group not to have a minimum of 11 goals in the English top-flight this term. That alone highlights how much of an outlier he is right now. He’s on five goals, Solanke has the same xG on Target total as him but he’s on 12.
Luck plays a part in finishing. While some players do make their own luck, sometimes it is just against you.
Darwin’s shot map suggests luck has deserted him at times this term.
He has hit the woodwork five times and a number of the efforts he’s aimed towards the bottom corner have been saved. An inch here or there and he’s vying with Haaland and Salah for the Golden Boot.
There is, of course, an element of poor finishing to factor into this too. He’s far from flawless in all of this and he has spurned a number of high-value opportunities. However, just because he’s missed those does not make him a poor finisher. Every striker is capable of missing. In fact, Salah and Haaland have missed sitters this season. The difference is the goals they score make people forget the misses. Whereas Darwin’s efforts just aren’t going in, no matter how well-struck or well-placed they are.
That is more bad luck than bad finishing. If he keeps on doing the same thing though, he’s surely going to find himself amongst the goals. Bad luck can’t last forever, can it?
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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