Mohamed Salah will leave Liverpool for the Africa Cup of Nations after an incredible start to the season, leaving Jurgen Klopp with the task of making up for his goals and assists.
By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com
Only Mo Salah.
Those three words will have been burned into the muscle memory of statisticians over the past six-and-a-half years, such has been Salah’s dominance since joining Liverpool from AS Roma in 2017.
The Egyptian has broken almost every record possible during his time on Merseyside, and it is often only possible to give another player his flowers with the caveat that “only Mo Salah” has better numbers.
In his final game for Liverpool before departing to captain Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations, Salah scored his 150th Premier League goal for the club, become just the fifth player to do so for a single club in the history of the English top flight. He departs with the joint-most goals in this season’s Premier League, tied with Erling Haaland on 14, as well as the joint-most assists, alongside Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins on eight.
No player has contributed to a higher ratio of their side’s goals in this season’s Premier League, with Salah directly responsible for 51.2 percent for Liverpool. Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke is next-closest with 46.4 percent, with Watkins third with 44.2 percent and Wolves’ Hwang Hee-chan, who himself is heading to the Asian Cup with South Korea, fourth with 43.3 percent.
So far in the league this season, he is averaging a goal or assist every 79.3 minutes. Stretch that to all competitions, with 18 goals and nine assists in 27 appearances, he is averaging one every 75.7 minutes.
Those are ridiculous numbers, and only serve to highlight what Liverpool will miss while Salah is away with his national team at the mid-season tournament in the Ivory Coast. His outing in the 4-2 victory over Newcastle, with a goal and two assists along with a penalty saved, could be his last for Liverpool until a trip to Brentford on February 17, if Egypt advance all the way to the final.
Salah is guaranteed to miss four games: the FA Cup third-round tie at Arsenal, both legs of the Carabao Cup semi-final against Fulham, and an away clash with Bournemouth in the Premier League. Depending on Egypt’s progress, he could stand to miss four more: league games against Chelsea, Arsenal, and Burnley, as well as a potential FA Cup fourth-round fixture slated for the end of January.
It goes without saying that Liverpool will miss a player who, earlier this season, moved into the top 10 of the club’s all-time top goalscorers – and later overtook Michael Owen into the Premier League’s all-time top 10.
Fundamentally, his loss will be felt as he has played more minutes for the Reds this season than any other player by far, his 2,045 across 27 appearances a distance away from Dominik Szoboszlai’s second-highest with 1,840 minutes on the pitch in 26 games.
But, of course, the focus will be on goals – and who is left behind to score them.
Darwin Núñez (25.6%) is the Reds’ next-highest contributor of goals and assists in the league this season, with Diogo Jota (16.3%) the only other Liverpool forward responsible for more than 10 percent of their 43 goals so far. Across all competitions, Jota (nine) is second-top goalscorer, with Núñez and Cody Gakpo both scoring eight, while Núñez and Trent Alexander-Arnold are tied in second for assists with eight apiece.
To paraphrase an iconic scene in the 2011 movie ‘Moneyball’ – based on the work of baseball recruitment pioneer Billy Beane, who inspired Liverpool owners Fenway Sports Group with the Boston Red Sox – while Salah himself may be irreplaceable, his output should be recreated in the aggregate.
His direct replacement on right wing is likely to come with a combination of Szoboszlai, Harvey Elliott and perhaps one of Jota, Gakpo or Luis Díaz, with Jürgen Klopp likely to rotate during a busy run in three competitions.
But the spread of goals and assists will need to be shared out more evenly. Núñez, who is underperforming his xG (-3.6) more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues bar Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski (-3.7), Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin (-3.9) and Celta Vigo’s Iago Aspas (-4.5), will need to find the luck and killer instinct required to make his chances count. Jota will need to find consistency after a bright start upon his return from injury; Gakpo will need to build on an impressive recent run that has brought two goals and an assist in his last four games; and Díaz desperately needs to recapture the spark that had long eluded him but, in the win over Newcastle, looked to be on its way back.
Though all involved will hope it is a problem long in the distance, this month or so could serve as a primer for Liverpool as speculation continues over an eventual permanent exit for Salah. Saudi Pro League side Al-Ittihad were rejected outright despite a world-record package being put together last summer, but clubs in the Middle East are expected to make further advances in 2024.
Salah would be minded to look to the experiences of former team-mates Roberto Firmino, Jordan Henderson, Fabinho, Sadio Mané and Gini Wijnaldum in Saudi Arabia, where games are often played to crowds of less than 1,000 people, however, as any move to a gulf state would come with a sacrifice of his personal ambitions.
Either way, a big summer awaits Liverpool and their No. 11, whose contract is due to expire in 2025 and therefore talks will be required over a potential extension. There is a case to argue that, despite his 32nd birthday coming before he ticks over into the final 12 months of his terms, Salah is better and more important to the club than ever. The hope will be, though, that this isn’t exposed during his time away, and instead Liverpool are able to recreate him in the aggregate as they maintain their challenge on four fronts, including for the Premier League title.
Signing a new contract in a year that could see him lift trophies in the Premier League, the Europa League, the FA Cup, the Carabao Cup and, of course, the Africa Cup of Nations would be fitting for a player of Salah’s unparalleled brilliance.
(Images from IMAGO)
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