There are rumbles of frustration at Anfield around the misfiring form of Darwin Núñez, who needs to turn his impressive underlying stats into the genuine product – and fast.
By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com
In the wake of Liverpool’s recent, late 2-1 win over Crystal Palace, an alarming statistic regarding Darwin Núñez began to gain traction on social media.
It was claimed that, since his £85 million arrival from Benfica in 2022, Nunez had scored 13 Premier League goals with an expected goals (xG) rate of 23.47, underperforming by 10.47 fewer goals.
xG statistics can never be used as empirical evidence, as they are largely subjective, but more so they can be used to illustrate a wider point.
Even the eye test has proved that Núñez, while capable of the sublime and game-changing, has missed a high number of chances that a striker of his ilk should be expected to score.
The reality is that Núñez has only underperformed his xG by 5.9 in the league – having netted 13 with an xG of 18.9 – with his tally in all competitions at 22 goals from 29.23 xG.
If he had put away all the chances xG models predicted he should, the 24-year-old would have 29 goals in his first 66 appearances for the Liverpool; include expected assists (xA) and it stands at 29 goals, nine assists in 66 games, or a goal contribution every 96 minutes.
His actual output is 22 goals, 10 assists in 66 games which, to his credit, is behind only Mohamed Salah when it comes to goal contributions for Liverpool since he arrived.
There has long been a sense that, when things start clicking properly for Núñez, he will explode into form as one of the most devastating centre-forwards in European football. He is, after all, getting into the right positions and being given the service needed.
Only two players to clock 900 or more minutes in this season’s Premier League are averaging a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Núñez (0.65), those being Nicolas Jackson (0.74) and Erling Haaland (0.81). In his debut campaign in England, Núñez (0.64) was behind only Callum Wilson (0.72) and Haaland (0.75).
But there is now a growing sense that, after almost 18 months on Merseyside and as a 24-year-old striker signed for a club-record fee, Núñez is afforded more leeway than he perhaps deserves.
It certainly doesn’t help that the Uruguayan finds himself on a 10-game scoring drought, his last goal a stunning long-range winner against Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup, blanking for 608 minutes – or over 10 hours – on the pitch against Luton, Toulouse, Brentford, Manchester City, LASK, Fulham, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace, Union SG and Manchester United since.
In that same time, Salah has scored only four goals and both Cody Gakpo and Luis Díaz have managed two apiece. Due to injury, Diogo Jota only featured in four of those 10 games and himself netted twice. Without the prolific Portuguese, who is second-top goalscorer this season with eight despite only clocking 926 minutes, Liverpool’s front line is seriously lacking goals.
Goals are what supporters would expect from a striker who cost £85 million and has now been afforded a year-and-a-half to bed into a new club, country and league, but Núñez’s inability to turn chances into conversions is a concern.
When he is unable to act purely on instinct, as he did with his two vital goals to clinch a 2-1 victory over Newcastle in August, Núñez appears to struggle.
This was no better summed up than when he allowed a promising chance to waste late on in the 0-0 draw with Manchester United, as he ignored an overlap from Kostas Tsimikas, delayed agonisingly as defensive bodies got back and fired meekly into a throng.
The frequency with which he is caught offside – 14 times, the second-most of any player in this season’s Premier League behind only Nottingham Forest’s Anthony Elanga (15) – is another frustration, as is his tendency to pick up cheap yellow cards, with four of his five so far this season shown for time-wasting or dissent.
Having now inherited the No. 9 shirt previously worn by Roberto Firmino, there are unavoidable and stark comparisons being made between Núñez and the legendary Brazilian when it comes to footballing IQ.
Though Firmino was one of the most unique strikers in football, the decision to shift from a player of his profile to a more orthodox, off-the-shoulder centre-forward is one of the more intriguing experiments of Klopp’s new ‘Liverpool 2.0’.
“Do I want Darwin to play like Bobby Firmino in the same position? No, not at all. It makes no sense. We are talking about a false No. 9 and a No. 9. That is the difference,” Klopp told reporters soon after Núñez’s arrival.
The manager explained his desire to “refresh the way we play,” and put the onus on the players to influence his planning as he was “really open to what the boys offer and from there we go.”
As his first campaign wore on, though, Klopp was forced to emphasis that in order for Núñez to reclaim the role of first-choice striker back from January signing Gakpo, he would need to accept that the “ticket” into his side is work off the ball.
That appears to have been grasped, as his average of tackles won in the final third rising from 0.27 per 90 in 2022/23 to 0.48 per 90 this time out shows.
Núñez is a more rounded striker as he nears the midpoint in his second season, but he is still unable to marry that with the off-the-cuff brilliance that made him such an attractive prospect at Benfica on a consistent enough basis.
Given his underlying statistics in front of goal are comparable to Haaland – widely considered the best centre-forward in the world – makes the situation more of an enigma.
At a time when Liverpool seem to be moving away from data-driven recruitment following the departures of Michael Edwards and Julian Ward as sporting directors, along with various key figures in the research department, Núñez arguably represents the data signing of Klopp’s current crop.
An element of trust that he will eventually come good is required, but after 18 months, patience in the stands is wearing thin.
Whether – or, perhaps, when – that extends to Klopp himself remains to be seen, with there a case to be made that the German has never worked with a striker of his ilk; he has described Núñez as a “long-term project” on a number of occasions, and it is hard to escape the feeling that this will only steel his resolve to tame a maverick No. 9 into the goal-grabbing machine he desperately needs up front.
Liverpool could clearly do with Núñez’s record in front of goal improving as soon as possible, particularly with the looming exit of Salah to the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
There are other options to consider, such as relying more heavily on Gakpo as the Firmino-lite, knitting presence up front, hoping for a smooth return from injury for Jota, or even the prospect of shifting Díaz into a central role to navigate the lack of one-on-one dynamism he has shown post-injury.
But it should be seen as the perfect opportunity for the £85 million signing to step up and take responsibility as the focal point of Klopp’s attack during a hopeful title charge – and Núñez can look to an analogy he made in October of last year as he aims to turn xG into G again.
“It’s like ketchup, when it comes out a little, it all comes out.”
(Images from IMAGO)
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