Arsenal are still in complete control of their destiny this season. You might be forgiven for thinking otherwise having seen the reaction to their two consecutive draws but the Gunners just have to match Manchester City’s results for the remainder of the campaign to clinch the title.
By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert
Granted, it shouldn’t be as close as it is now. Arsenal have taken 2-0 leads in their last two outings but in both matches, they failed to convert these good starts into maximum points.
In truth, both games followed a similar pattern. Mikel Arteta’s men started well and had complete control up until they didn’t. A goal against the run of play seemed to knock the confidence of the Premier League leaders and they weren’t able to properly recover.
At Anfield, Liverpool dominated the second half, racking up an Expected Goals total of 2.88 after the break in a game they created eight big chances. West Ham didn’t dictate proceedings in the second half but the match was a lot more even than Arsenal would’ve liked, with both teams creating three big chances.
It may sound odd to say this given Arteta’s side had won seven successive Premier League matches ahead of their trip to Merseyside, but these sorts of results have been on the cards.
Ahead of the World Cup, we did a feature on this Arsenal side looking at whether this push for the title was sustainable. At the time, everything pointed towards this team being different to its predecessors. There weren’t any signs that this group would fall off towards the end of the campaign.
They had the joint-best defensive record in the league, conceding just 0.78 goals per game, while they were keeping pace with Manchester City in attack, averaging 2.35 goals per game. In their opening 14 matches, the Gunners had dropped points in just two matches and were running at a rate of 2.64 points per game – enough for a 100-point season.
Only one team in Premier League history has hit 100 points so it would’ve been safe to assume Arsenal would slow down at some stage and they have. They’re now averaging 2.38 points per game – enough for a 90-point campaign. It would still make them one of the most dominant teams ever in the English top flight.
Post-World Cup, the Gunners haven’t been quite as dominant.
Their goals-per-game average has remained fairly similar but they are now conceding more goals. They still have the third-best defensive record in the Premier League behind Newcastle United and Manchester City.
But their goals-against average has risen from 0.78 to one per game. What is particularly interesting though is that in 14 games prior to the World Cup break, Arsenal conceded two or more goals in just three matches. So, in 21% of their games, the Gunners conceded two or more.
In the 17 games following the World Cup, Arteta’s side have conceded two or more in seven games. When converted into a percentage this is a staggering 41%.
So while the belief is that William Saliba’s absence is the reason for dropped points recently, this drop-off in defensive resilience started with him in the team. The Frenchman has been one of the best defenders in the league this season but the stats speak for themselves. Even with him in the starting XI, the Gunners have started to concede more goals. They got away with it at the start of the year but this is now catching up with them.
Simply put, the more goals conceded, the more pressure is on the forwards.
Instead of needing to score two goals to win a game, they’re needing to score three or four to claim maximum points. Eventually, it is a bit too much.
Arsenal dug deep in games against Manchester United, Bournemouth and Aston Villa, scoring in stoppage time to complete three comeback victories over a nine-game span. This sort of thing just wasn’t sustainable long-term. Eventually, the attack wouldn’t be able to get the team out of trouble.
The Gunners have kept just five clean sheets in 15 outings since the turn of the year. Prior to that, they had kept seven in 16. It might not seem like much of a difference when written like that but in terms of percentages, Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games prior to the turn of the year, they have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their Premier League games in 2023.
If Arsenal are to see this season out and claim the title, they are going to have to go into safety mode and stop the opposition from scoring. Do that and they will have more than enough quality to score the goals needed to win these games.
(Images from IMAGO)
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