This week we discuss the chances that Napoli could take their domestic form in to the Champions League, how Milan had to change in order to break their bad form and just how bad are winless Cremonese?
By Matteo Bonetti, US Serie A expert
Could Napoli pull off a double?
Napoli’s Scudetto chances now look like a foregone conclusion. They have a 15 point lead over Inter, they play the best football in the league by a large margin and have shown the ability to deal with injuries because of the strength in depth from last summer’s transfer market.
Now there’s a few whispers about whether they can really pull off the unthinkable: A Champions League victory. They’re heavily favoured against German opposition Eintracht Frankfurt, who currently sit outside the top four in the Bundesliga. It also feels like Napoli have absolutely nothing to lose – they weren’t expected to finish in the top four in Serie A and just getting out of the UCL group stages would’ve felt like a victory to fans before the season. Now they have to be included as one of the teams who can truly cause an upset in Europe’s most prestigious club competition. While they don’t have the overall talent, or wage bill of the state owned super teams, they play a brand of football that is as effective as anyone in Europe. There’s no weaknesses in the team either, they defend well, hold possession even better, and have one of the best attacks in the world with the currently unstoppable duo of Kvicha Kvaratshkelia and Victor Osimhen.
It’s hard to think of a way to stop this attack. If you sit deep in a low block, Osimhen can dominate in the aerial game. If you play a more modern brand of football and bring the defensive line high up the pitch, then the Nigerian striker becomes one of the most feared counter attacking threats. The quality and diversity of the midfield has proven to have the perfect balance in games, with Stanislav Lobotka sitting in front of the defence and organising, while Piotr Zielinski and Zambo Angiussa break up play and join the attack. It would be madness to suggest that Napoli are anywhere near favourites to win the Champions League, but it seems naive to not mention that they have a puncher’s chance in the competition.
Milan finally win with their new look formation
Milan’s new year from hell has been put on pause as the Rossoneri finally broke their seven game winless streak that saw them play some of the worst football in recent memory. Milan were able to beat Torino 1-0, in a display that wasn’t aesthetically pleasing but got an all important result in the tight race for a top four finish. With manager Stefano Pioli increasingly on the hot seat, he was forced to make a drastic switch with the formation to make the team more defensively sound and balanced. The attacking 4-2-3-1 was scrapped for a more balanced 3-5-2.
In hindsight, the move makes sense given that two of the three players behind the striker have been unconvincing. Charles De Ketelaere is still a mystery and Brahim Díaz is too inconsistent to be relied upon as the no.10. At right wing, the situation isn’t any better – both Junior Messias and Alexis Saelemaekers don’t look to have enough quality to hold a spot in Milan’s frontline. The answer to this is to simply remove both positions and play an extra central midfielder. Another play that should theoretically benefit from the tactical change is Theo Hernández. The French full-back is one of the best going forward, but can be caught out defensively. With a back three, the idea is Theo has more licence to do what he does best while knowing he has an extra centre-back behind him to provide cover as he makes his signature coast-to-coast runs into the final third.
The question will now be whether or not Pioli sticks with this new formation. There are massive games coming up for the Rossoneri. A Champions League clash against Tottenham is first on the menu, with Antonio Conte’s side having recently lost 4-1 to Leicester City in the Premier League. This looks like an ideal game to stick with a back three and mirror Conte’s tactics. Spurs have loads of quality in the final third which could’ve been problematic for a Milan defence that suddenly forgot some of the basic principles of defending in 2023. Another bit of good news for Milan is they’re getting two starters back from injury, Ismaël Bennacer and Fikayo Tomori. While Tomori has had a rough start to the new year, his characteristics as a defender could be vital against Tottenham’s attack. He’s very fast and even more aggressive with his pressing, which could make life difficult for Harry Kane to settle the ball with his back to goal. Bennacer is also pivotal to carry out Pioli’s instructions. He’s the best passer in Milan’s team and will be very important in their quest to win the possession game in the midfield at San Siro.
Cremonese’s Demise
Recently promoted Cremonese are on the path to setting their own record – historically the worst team ever in Serie A from a statistical standpoint. It’s a tough task to match the futility shown from Ancona’s 2003-04 season. Ancona finished that campaign with 13 points in total, going winless between September to April in a stretch that saw them pick up 21 losses and seven draws. Cremonese currently have eight draws and 14 losses, but that’s where the similarities stop with that horrid Ancona team. The Lombard minnows actually play decent football, and recently knocked out both Napoli (a heavily rotated Neapolitan team, it must be said) and then Roma in the Coppa Italia. This improbable cup run makes little sense considering their domestic form, where they try to play their brand of football but are too often let down by the lack of Serie A experience in their squad.
The team has some interesting prospects – right wingback Leonardo Sernicola looks quite tricky going forward and definitely has a future in Serie A, while top scorer David Okereke has already proven last season, with relegated Venezia, that he’s capable enough to lead the line for a top flight team – maybe all he needs is more quality around him to take the next step.
As it stands, manager Davide Ballardini (who is no stranger to being in this position) has a monumental task if he’s to save Cremonese from relegation. They’re currently 11 points from salvation, and look destined to drop back to Serie B, which is where they’ve spent the majority of their time in the 21st century.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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