Everyone expected Arsenal to be in the race for a Champions League spot this season. Nobody envisaged them challenging for the title, yet as we head into the World Cup break, the Gunners are five points clear at the top of the table.
By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert
Mikel Arteta guided his side to a fifth-place finish last term, finishing two points off of a top-four spot. To get them over the line this time around, the owners backed their manager in the transfer market, spending over £100million for a second successive summer.
Now, armed with a squad of players he has brought in, Arteta is able to execute his tactical plan. So far, so good. Arsenal are averaging 2.64 points per game. Keep this up for the rest of the season and they will equal Manchester City’s centurion’s campaign.
However, rival fans seem to think the bubble will burst.
They didn’t necessarily collapse towards the end of last season but they missed out on Champions League football last season by three points having lost six of their final 12 matches. There was even a three-game period in which the Gunners lost to Brighton, Crystal Palace and Southampton.
By comparison, with the pressure on, Spurs won eight and drew two of their final 12 matches. Antonio Conte’s side picked up 26 points, eight more than Arsenal managed over the same period.
There seems to be a feeling that once they graduate from underdogs to favourites, they aren’t the best at handling the increased pressure.
So why will it be different this time around?
For starters, they are all a year older and will have taken a lot from the experiences of last season. That cannot and should not be overlooked. They also added winners to their squad in Gabriel Jesus, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Fábio Vieira. The latter may not have featured much this term but that isn’t relevant to the point. He has a winning mentality having won the Primeira Liga with Porto.
It may sound basic but knowing how to win is an underrated trait. It breeds more success. Liverpool are the perfect example of that. After winning the Champions League in 2019, the Reds went on to claim everything else over the next three years.
If you haven’t been able to turn your squad into winners then you add some. That blend of success and hunger to be successful can often be enough to tip the scales in your favour. That is what Arsenal have done.
They have the mentality. They also have the numbers on their side, too
Teams that are running exceptionally hot will fizzle out eventually. But everything about this Arsenal team screams sustainable.
They have the joint-best defensive record in the Premier League along with Newcastle United, with both teams having conceded 11 goals this season. The Gunners also rank second (behind Manchester City) for Expected Goals conceded with a total of 12. So, they aren’t giving up high-value chances on a regular basis and there is no overreliance on Aaron Ramsdale between the sticks.
Chelsea, for example, had an impressive run following the appointment of Graham Potter. However, their run of clean sheets had nothing to do with the organisation of the defence and everything to do with Kepa’s exploits in goal. It was only a matter of time before they started to concede. The Blues are now winless in five Premier League matches and have lost their last three.
Defensively, Arsenal are resolute. Offensively, they are going toe-to-toe with Manchester City. They rank second behind the reigning champions for xG with 27.1 over their 14 matches. Unlike Pep Guardiola’s side who seem to funnel a lot of their attacking patterns the way of Erling Haaland, Arteta has assembled a squad with multiple goal threats.
Even though Gabriel Jesus isn’t scoring, Arsenal are winning
He hasn’t found the back of the net in well over a month and yet the Gunners have claimed 13 points from the last 15 on offer in the Premier League. Only Newcastle can better that total. Arsenal top the away table with 19 points from eight matches and have a 100% record at the Emirates.
You could even make the case that they have had the tougher fixtures too. City are yet to play Spurs or Chelsea while Arteta’s men have faced off against both, as well as Liverpool and Manchester United.
In fact, some of Arsenal’s best performances this season have come against the big six. They have racked up xG90 totals of over 2.2 in their matches against Spurs (2.38), Liverpool (3.09) and Chelsea (2.25) while limiting the opposition in those games to an xG average of 0.99.
Complete and utter domination against their biggest rivals
Arsenal have not finished in the top four since 2015/16 and the last time they lifted the title was in 2004, during the Invincibles season. They look a shoo-in for a top-four spot and their title challenge has solid foundations. The bubble doesn’t look like it is going to burst.
(Images from IMAGO)
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